A reckoning ahead for the Fed…
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A Reckoning Ahead
For The Fed
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With the Treasury soon needing to fund trillions in deficit spending…and the Fed about to taper its monthly purchases…we’re about to see markets turned upside down.
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I’ve spent 36 years in this business, watching the markets on a daily basis, consulting with some of the world’s most insightful analysts and witnessing some of the most tumultuous markets in history.
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And I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a set-up as worrisome as what lies directly ahead.
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After decades of ever-easier monetary policies, and essentially 13 years of zeroed interest rates, we’ve seen debt — government, corporate and private — soar to mind-boggling levels.
This is one reason why rate hikes of any significant degree are simply impossible: The costs to service this mountain of debt would overwhelm any other spending.
But there’s another, more-immediate reason. And this one will hit the Fed like a figurative sledgehammer.
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The stock market simply won’t allow it.
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Consider that after decades of pumping up stocks and real estate via oceans of monetary liquidity, those markets are teetering at record valuations by virtually every measure.
Forget the old adage that “the stock market isn’t the economy.” Today, with such widespread ownership and record levels, the stock market is the U.S. economy.
Remember the stock-market “taper tantrums” the last time the Fed tried to roll back its asset purchases? The Fed can’t afford to have even a single such tantrum today.
And what about rate hikes? The last time the Fed tried that, the markets wouldn’t allow the central bank to raise rates more than a quarter-point a year. And then they had to turn back from raising rates far short of their modest goals.
(Also remember, as I’ve been reminding you, that gold took off precisely when the Fed posted its first rate hike in December of 2015.)
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Running Full-Speed Into A Brick Wall
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Now, with all of this as a backdrop, consider that Congress and the Biden administration are about to push through trillions upon trillions in additional deficit spending…
…Forcing the Treasury to issue trillions in additional paper…
…Just as the Fed is about to attempt to taper its purchases of Treasury securities.
So add a third reason why monetary tightening at this point is simply impossible.
The Fed seems completely oblivious to these facts. You never see them address the simple arithmetic that creates an insurmountable barrier to their plans. They seem to be running ahead, blind-folded, with a brick wall directly ahead of them.
A big issue in all of this, perhaps the biggest issue, is that the Fed can’t be that stupid. What they’re doing is conducting a massive PR campaign designed to keep the markets calm.
You don’t see any of this mentioned on CNBC or most other financial media.
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As a result, the investing public is running along with the Fed into that brick wall.
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Or most of the investing public. A few will not only be aware…but well-prepared for what lies ahead.
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Stay Safely
— And Profitably —
Ahead Of The Turmoil
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As I said, this may be the most dramatic investing set-up that I’ve ever seen in all my years in the markets.
It’s not just that the Fed and most investors are running head-long into the fire, it’s also that most don’t even see the flames.
By the very fact that you’re reading this letter, I’m confident you see the danger in front of us, and the turmoil we’ll have to navigate.
That’s one of the primary reasons why I’ve been so headstrong in producing this year’s New Orleans Investment Conference as an in-person event.
Sure, attendees at last year’s conference told us that it was the most valuable virtual event that they participated in.
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But there’s simply no substitute for the value of sharing ideas with other smart, successful investors, and being able to talk one-on-one with so many of today’s finest analysts.
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That’s why I’m so excited about this year’s New Orleans Conference, being held in just a few weeks, from October 19-22. And it’s why I recruited a “dream team” faculty for this grand event, including…
| Dr. Ron Paul, James Grant, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Jim Iuorio, Doug Casey, Rick Rule, Peter Schiff, Dave Collum, Grant Williams, Dominic Frisby, Tavi Costa, Lawrence Lepard, George Gammon, Jon Najarian…
…Brent Johnson, Peter Boockvar, Mark Skousen, The Real Estate Guys (Robert Helms and Russell Gray), Adrian Day, Gwen Preston, Adam Taggart and dozens more.
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And of course, I’m going to be there as well…expanding on the points I made above, and revealing my top mining stock picks for the year ahead.
The bottom line is that time is growing short.
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Hundreds of investors have already reserved their spots at New Orleans 2021. I urge you to CLICK HERE to get all the details and lock in your place while you still can.
| | All the best,
Brien Lundin
Editor, Gold Newsletter
CEO, the New Orleans Investment Conference
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