Imagine for a moment that you’re back in the gold market of last year.
Somebody tells you that in 12 months, the Dollar Index would be over 100, the 10-year Treasury yield would be pushing 2.7%, the Fed is saying they’re going to hike a half point at every meeting in the foreseeable future and the CPI just posted the highest inflation rate in 40 years.
They then tell you to predict the price of gold in this scenario.
In the mindset of a year ago, most investors would have predicted that gold would be trading at the previous lows around $1,150 or so. That’s because all of the above metrics were, at that point in time, considered bearish for gold.
The reason? The markets were obsessed with Fed policy rather than the actual economic drivers. Anything that hinted of a more-hawkish Fed sent the traders and algos selling the yellow metal.
We’ve come a long way, baby.
The transition in sentiment has been bumpy, as I predicted, but more and more we’re seeing investors regarding high inflation as bullish for gold. Just as important, they are rightly viewing the Fed’s rate-hike campaign as a positive.
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Golden Opportunities continues below...
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