October 9, 2023
Dear Fellow Investor, |
Sometimes a good day for gold is a bad day for the world.
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That’s the case at the moment, as the terror and bloodshed in Israel is driving gold and silver far higher. As I write, gold is up about $17 and silver is up similarly on a percentage basis.
This rally is an example of the classic “safe haven” buying that rushes into gold following any significant geopolitical brush fire. But it’s really a misnomer, as there’s no rational reason why an outbreak of violence in some corner of the world should lead investors across the globe to suddenly rush into the yellow metal.
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Unless, of course, they’re simply betting that others are doing the same...driving the price higher...and they’ll somehow be one of the very few smart enough to sell near the top.
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In other words, it’s not a flight to safety, but a speculative bet.
And I’ve always advised against jumping on these bandwagons, because you’re almost certainly going to be left holding the bag. You’re not going to be the first to buy nor the first to sell.
However, this current event might be an exception to that advice...because of what happened on Friday.
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A Turning Point
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On Friday, before the Hamas attack erupted, we got economic data that should have been disastrous for gold.
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The September non-farm payrolls report showed 336,000 jobs created in September — a massive surprise that was no less than double the expectation.
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This positive data point, being supportive of further Fed rate hikes, should have pushed gold into a nose dive.
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And it did...initially. But then the gold price rebounded, soaring as much as $15 in an amazing rebound.
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On that immediate price drop, gold actually posted an intra-day “death cross,” with the 50-day moving average dropping just pennies below the 200-day moving average.
As I told you over the weekend, if the price would have continued lower, it wouldn’t bode well for gold bulls. In the three previous times this happened since the pandemic emerged, the gold price continued to decline for a few months.
But, if the gold price managed to bounce off of this level — as it did early last year — we could expect a huge rally. In that instance, gold soared over $200 in a relative flash.
So it’s extremely encouraging that gold seems to have once again bounced off of a death cross. Also technically positive is the fact that gold had an “outside day” on Friday, with a lower low at the opening and a higher close than the previous day.
This often marks big turnarounds in a market.
And I think all of this is now marking a sea change in gold.
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It’s Time To Pay Attention...
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Again, buying gold on the basis of a geopolitical event is not something I recommend.
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However, buying gold on a bounce from an extremely oversold level — as we saw on Friday, before the attack on Israel — could prove to be an extremely rewarding move.
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All the best,
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Brien Lundin
Publisher, Gold Newsletter
CEO, the New Orleans Investment Conference
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