Gold: From correction to coiling to comeback...

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From Correction
To Coiling
To Comeback

Gold was threatening to break out of its flag pattern last week. Now it looks like it lived up to the threat.

It may be another false breakout, but so far it looks good from both technical and timing perspectives.

Last week I featured a chart showing the four big rallies experienced so far in this bull market, each followed by “corrections” that were little more than extended range-trading.
 

The latest example showed gold trading in an ever-tightening flag pattern that indicated a breakout was near. Here’s the latest version of that chart, updated through Friday’s close:

As you can see, gold broke through the upper boundary of that flag pattern on Friday, a development that likely means the correction phase is over and gold’s price has bottomed.
 

From a seasonality standpoint, this would fit in perfectly with my observation that gold often bottoms in mid- to late-December, getting a head start on the typical new year rally.

So, from both technical and timing perspectives, it’s looking good for gold. And of course, silver has already taken off, which adds further evidence to our thesis.

As I write, gold is down a few dollars, having lost about $45 of its gains from earlier in the session. We’ll see if our thesis survives today, but I’m not too worried about a few hours of trading, or even a full day.
 

This metals and mining bull market is still in the early innings, fueled by macroeconomic factors decades in the making. Whether it’s today, next week or next month, the next big rally is coming.
 

And we need to be prepared for it.

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All the best,

Brien Lundin
Publisher, Gold Newsletter
CEO, the New Orleans Investment Conference

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