| If I would’ve told you last month that gold and silver...along with all the other metals and miners...would be soaring higher in the first full week of 2026, you wouldn’t have been surprised at the prediction.
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| What has surprised most of the world over the past few days — notably including Nicolas Maduro and his wife — was the Delta Force’s forceful extradition of the Venezuelan strongman.
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| While I don’t doubt that this geopolitical flashpoint has something to do with sparking today’s melt-up in the metals and miners, what’s most important are the long-term repercussions of this development.
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| And those are exceedingly bullish for the metals.
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| First, let’s look at the short-term developments: As I write, spot gold is up about $115 (2.7%), silver has leaped $3.40 (4.7%), while platinum is up about 6% and palladium is up nearly 5%. Even copper is up 5%.
The major gold mining indices are up around 4%.
So, yes, the situation in Venezuela is having a reaction in metals and miners, and all other markets today. But what’s really important is how this will affect everything down the road....
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| Throwing Gasoline On The Fire
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| None of what has happened over the last few days on geopolitical front really affects the so-called “debasement trade” — the moniker that Wall Street has adorned the macroeconomic thesis that we’ve put forward for years.
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| In short, the debt loads accumulated over 45 years of ever-easier monetary policies across the developed world will necessitate much more rapid depreciation of purchasing power among fiat currencies.
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| That trend is irrefutable, inevitable and irreversible.
The other big factor that has been driving the gold price, of course, is central bank buying. And as we well know, that buying exploded higher in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the resulting sanctions regime led by the U.S.
In terms of tonnage, that buying has slacked off over the last year as the gold price has risen precipitously. As I’ve noted, this isn’t a sign of waning appetites for the yellow metal, but rather an indication that nations are dedicating set amounts to purchase over specific periods.
Thus, they are essentially “dollar-cost averaging” — naturally buying less with the same amount of money as the price rises.
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| As their gold purchases in tonnage terms have waned, central bank purchases have become more of a support for the gold market than a driver. Coincidentally, Western buying has increased since late summer, and to a significant extent replaced the central banks as the factor driving the rallies (and corrections).
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| Well, after the events of this past weekend...that’s about to change.
Whatever your views on the legality and/or legitimacy of Trump’s decision to abduct Maduro, one thing most will agree on is that this forceful application of U.S. political will and military might will only increase international concerns over dollar hegemony.
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| In short, I fully expect more nations to join the gold-reserve parade, and those already marching to do so with even more vigor.
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| Normally, I would expect the effects of any geopolitical event on gold to quickly fade away as normalcy inevitably erupts. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see the metals give up some of today’s gains over the next few trading sessions.
But what we’re also seeing now, and would have been seeing if Maduro had not been seized, is a continuation of the varied macroeconomic trends that were already driving not only gold but silver and all other commodities higher.
We all need to be aboard this train as it continues to advance.
The good news is that junior mining stocks are still lagging, and represent remarkable bargains relative to metals prices.
So yes, if you’re not already subscribed to Gold Newsletter and receiving my top recommendations, you need to rectify that situation now. (CLICK HERE to subscribe.)
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| Brien Lundin
Publisher, Gold Newsletter
CEO, the New Orleans Investment Conference
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