Easy and obvious...

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Easy And Obvious

Sometimes it’s simple to analyze what’s going on in the markets, and this is one of those times.

I spend a lot of time and words trying to look behind the headlines for the real story.

Not today, however.

That’s because the story today is easy: A surprisingly hot Producer Price Index number, combined with recent attacks on Iranian oil facilities and a 5% spike in Brent crude this morning has sent the markets reeling.

Yes, gold is down about $150 and silver is off more than $3.00, but U.S. stocks and crypto are plummeting, while Treasury yields and the Dollar Index are rising.
 

There’s red ink all over the place.
 

Prior to the Fed’s announcement and nearly unchanged policy statement, odds for a rate cut had plunged to less than 1%. So their decision to keep rates as they are was no surprise and, as I write, the markets have barely budged on the news.
 

Gold has regained some of its losses, but it’s another down day for the yellow metal — and one that has taken it below support at $5,000.

As you can see, this move has taken the price to the bottom of the trading range it has been confined within since the big sell-off in January.
 

If we go lower again tomorrow, I’ll start to get concerned about the near term prospects.
 

However, I am encouraged by gold’s falling Bollinger bandwidth, as it enters the rough area that has previously indicated an imminent rally.

I told a major media reporter yesterday that, to my eyes, it seemed like we had another week or two before this indicator bottomed, if this trading range holds true. Frankly, a turn higher could come at any time, and would likely be sparked by something not found in today’s headlines.
 

As always, we’ll see soon enough.
 

I would urge you to remember what I said earlier this week — “the underlying factors that are supporting this bull run are decades in the making and will not be derailed” — and make sure you are fully prepared and positioned for the next leg of gold’s historic run.

All the best,

Brien Lundin
Publisher, Gold Newsletter
CEO, the New Orleans Investment Conference

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