A relief rally, and then reality...

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Relief Vs Reality

Markets are cheering the apparent cease fire in the Iran conflict, but hopes — and the rally — could be dashed at any time.
 

For now, the rebound in metals and mining that we expected is in full bloom.

There’s a party going on right now on Wall Street and in bourses around the world.

In the U.S. the major stock indices are soaring, as are Treasurys, crypto, metals and mining — everything but the Dollar Index and the energy sector.

The reason for the party, of course, is the cease fire with Iran that President Trump announced late yesterday.

I hate to be the one to throw the you-know-what into the punchbowl, but this celebration may be a bit premature.

For one thing, the 10-point plan being circulated in the media bears little to no resemblance to anything that the U.S. would agree to. Frankly, they are so outside the bounds of Trump’s 15-point plan that I don’t believe they’re genuine.
 

And in another development, Israel’s attacks on Lebanon have reportedly led Iran to quickly close the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic.

We’ll see in the hours and days ahead how much of these reports represent reality, as I’ve found little in the mainstream and alternative media to inspire credibility since the conflict began.

It is interesting that while paper gold prices are over $90, a level that spot gold also reached early in the session, the spot price has come back a bit as reports and rumors have stoked some pessimism.

As I’ve been saying, the final cessation of hostilities will bring a major relief rally for metals and miners, as well as all risk assets. Whether this is the end of the conflict or not, today’s action is serving to emphasize this inevitability.

In the meantime, all the gold mining indices are up between 3.5%-4.5% so far today, and companies in our Gold Newsletter portfolio are showing much larger gains.

I believe this market is going much, much higher over the long term. If you haven’t yet taken advantage of the fire sale that this geopolitical event created, you need to get positioned now.

All the best,

Brien Lundin
Publisher, Gold Newsletter
CEO, the New Orleans Investment Conference

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