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May 18, 2022

Throwing gasoline on an inflationary fire...

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Throwing Gasoline On A Fire

I joined Jeff Bezos in pointing out the absurdity of President Biden’s recent tweet on inflation.

It was not only completely illogical, it was downright scary — and reveals why high inflation isn’t going away anytime soon.


May 18, 2022


Dear Fellow Investor,


It was stunningly stupid.


Before I go further, please know that I don’t like to talk politics in these letters. But I do feel a responsibility to talk economic policies...or the lack thereof...because they obviously affect every investment market.

So I feel obligated to comment here on President Biden’s recent tweet on inflation, because it reveals what the future holds for us:



The very fact that you’re reading this newsletter means you’re smart enough to see the inanity in this comment. Still, consider my response:



After I’d tweeted my response, I noticed that Jeff Bezos had expressed a similar view:



Of course higher taxes won’t have any effect on inflation. If anything, it will exacerbate inflation by raising costs on producers (which will be passed along via higher prices to consumers) and give more money to the government to inject into the economy via wasteful spending.

That’s scary enough. But what is truly frightening is that those in the seat of power, the people desperately pulling on whatever economic lever is at hand, truly have no idea of how the world works.


Throwing Gasoline On A Fire


Our monetary overlords in Washington subscribe to the economic gobbledygook being taught in the halls of academe these days.

As I commented on the Wall Street Journal’s article covering Bezos’ tweet, “These people have never run a lemonade stand yet they're in control of everything. Whoever invented the term ‘aggregate demand’ has probably impoverished as many people as Karl Marx.”

And that’s why the chances of slowing down inflation are slim to none — because Keynesian economists and, increasingly, Modern Monetary Theorists, control the economic decision-making apparatus in Washington.

MMT in particular sings a siren song to politicians seeking to buy votes through government handouts, since that theory maintains that there are no practical limits or downsides to government spending.

And government spending is to inflation like gasoline is to a fire.

One of the better recaps of how government spending contributed to the current inflationary spike was put out this morning by Jim Geraghty in his Morning Jolt column for National Review:

“We were probably destined to have supply-chain issues and other economic hiccups as the country emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic. But our government worsened the problem by throwing gobs and gobs of new money into the economy, much faster than the country could produce goods.

 

“In March 2020, as the Covid-19 pandemic hit, the national unemployment rate spiked to 14.8 percent. But by October of that year, unemployment was down to 6.9 percent, and by March 2021, it was down to 6 percent. The U.S. gross domestic product had crashed in the second quarter of 2020, rebounded dramatically in the third, and returned to regular growth in the fourth. On December 21, 2020, Congress approved a $2.3 trillion funding package consisting of a $900 billion end-of-the-year Covid-19 stimulus bill attached to a $1.4 trillion omnibus spending bill to fund the government through September 30, 2021. In other words, by March 2021, as the vaccines were rolling out, the U.S. economy was well along the road to returning to normal.
 

“But then, once President Biden took office, Democrats in Congress passed, and Biden signed, another $1.9 trillion package of “pandemic relief” in March atop the $900 billion they had spent four months earlier. And by November, Biden had signed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill on top of that. And then this March, he signed a $1.5 trillion omnibus bill.
 

“That’s a lot of money being borrowed and thrown into the U.S. economy in a short period of time — about $5.9 trillion in a 16-month span. In other words, a whole lot of money is chasing too few goods.”


And this brings us to my final point: Inflation isn’t going away anytime soon.

That’s because the go-to policy response, from the Federal Reserve to Congress to the White House, no matter which party is in power, is to address any problem with more government spending.

The last president who even mentioned cutting government spending as a priority was Ronald Reagan and, ironically, he ended up massively expanding the federal debt. (Of course, it resulted in killing off the Soviet Union, but the point remains the same — government spends, it doesn’t cut spending.)

The future is uncertain, but here’s one thing we can be confident of:

If we continue to throw more gasoline on the inflationary fires while growing the federal debt ever more quickly, the end result will be a major (and necessary) depreciation in the purchasing power of the dollar and all other fiat currencies.

And this is why we must continue to use gold and silver to protect our assets. It represents insurance not against a possibility, but against an inevitability.



All the best,

Brien Lundin
Editor, Gold Newsletter
CEO, the New Orleans Investment Conference

P.S. Once again, this fall’s New Orleans Conference represents the best way to learn how to protect yourself from the inevitability of the dollar’s decline. Registrations are rushing in and our room block is limited, so CLICK HERE to reserve your spot at the lowest possible rates.

 
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GNL Admin2022-12-28T19:09:43+00:00May 18th, 2022|

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