| When we raised our champagne glasses to ring in the new year, I don’t think anyone expected 2025 to be easy and uneventful.
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| That said, the parade of economic and geopolitical developments in the first half of the year — from President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff war to the actual war between Israel and Iran (with a notable bombing run by the U.S. thrown in) to a number of smaller but still significant skirmishes and disputes — has been quite remarkable to witness.
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| All of these events added to the allure of gold as a safe haven, driving the price to even greater heights and price records. So it certainly wasn’t surprising that the relative easing of these tensions, combined with the typical summertime distractions, led to the current slump in gold.
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| A three-month gold price chart tells the story of gold’s halting attempts to free itself from the morass of a summertime slump over the past couple of months.
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| As you can see, we hit a low around $3,265 in late June, tested that low in late July, and have been on the upswing since then.
A big dip last Wednesday when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell threw cold water on hopes for a September rate cut was reversed with a jump of over $50 last Friday after the release of a stunningly bad July nonfarm payrolls number.
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| It’s been a roller-coaster ride, but it seems to be nearing the end.
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| For one thing, gold’s Bollinger bands are now expanding, showing increasing volatility after an extended drop in that measure. This usually happens at the start of a rally...but we notably had a false start in this indicator a couple of weeks ago, so we’ll hold off judgement for now.
Perhaps the most compelling data point we have, however, is the calendar itself.
I’ve talked about this recently with my readers, sharing my anecdotal impression over my decades of watching the metals markets that gold typically bottoms anywhere from mid-July to mid-August.
Thanks to the wonders of AI, I’ve just tested that hypothesis...and discovered that my impressions have been wrong.
However, my error is understandable.
First off, ChatGPT tells me that the average summertime bottom in gold over the past 25 years has actually occurred in mid-June (specifically, around June 10th), and usually no later than early July. Seemingly somewhat contradictory, the Seasonax models show that the average new rally begins on July 6th.
Either of these would be a bit earlier than my impressions, and would actually fit with what gold’s been doing this year...if we don’t dip below the June lows of around $3,265 in the days ahead.
But in my defense, I wasn’t completely wrong in my recollection of gold’s summertime seasonality. Asking ChatGPT to further refine its analysis to gold’s performance during bull markets alone, we find that the price bottom shifts later to...mid-July to mid-August.
So, perhaps true to my personality, I’ve chosen to dwell on the good times and not the bad.
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| Regardless, the only real question is when — not if — gold begins its next rally.
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| All the fundamentals, as well as the technicals and the calendar itself, are telling us it’s on the way.
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| New Orleans ’25 is right around the corner...
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| The calendar is also telling us that this year’s New Orleans Conference is fast approaching.
As you know, I firmly believe the opportunity facing us right now in metals and mining is generational in scope. It’s similar to the gold bull markets of the 1970s and 2000s — but dramatically different in one very important way.
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| Never before has gold soared to record heights before the gold mining stocks have barely budged.
The hard part — getting gold going — has already been done. The next phase, soaring mining equities, is all but inevitable.
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| And it’s already beginning. Not only do we have gold at record heights...silver has finally broken out...and now the junior miners are beginning to make news and take off.
My point is this: There is still time to get positioned in a sector that, if past experiences are any indication, will generate life-changing gains over the next few years.
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| There’s one other important point borne out by history: The best place to be in a metals and mining bull market is the New Orleans Investment Conference.
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| This year’s event will not only feature our usual roster of top experts in macroeconomics and every major asset class, but also a “dream team” of the best analysts in metals and mining.
The risk at this point isn’t to be faced by investing in junior mining, but in not investing in the sector.
And right now, the biggest risk you face is missing out on this year’s New Orleans Conference.
You see, our registrations right now are well ahead of anything we’ve seen for many years. Smart investors are flocking to New Orleans this year, and there’s risk that we’ll completely sell out of our room block at the Hilton Riverside.
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| Not only that, but we’re going to raise the registration fees once again in the near future.
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| So if you want to guarantee your place...and save up to $400 from the registration fees...click on the link below to learn more and reserve your spot now.
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| Brien Lundin
Publisher, Gold Newsletter
CEO, the New Orleans Investment Conference
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| CLICK HERE
To Learn More
And Register For
New Orleans ’25
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