Bottom’s up...

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Bottom’s Up

We’ve been tracking the bottoming process for the metals over the past couple of months and eagerly awaiting the beginning of the next rally.
 

That time has finally come.

That played out just as expected.

Not that it was easy. The first true correction of this gold bull market took the price of gold down 26%, silver down 52% and the GDX gold mining index down 39% from late January to the beginning of this month.

It was painful, but I have to tell you that all of the experienced metals and mining investors I corresponded with or talked to over that period weren’t overly concerned.

They — like you, if you’re reading this letter — were confident in the powerful drivers behind this bull market...the absolute, mathematical necessity of accelerated currency debasement in the months and years ahead.
 

So they knew that this correction couldn’t derail the long-term uptrend.
 

Moreover, while that torrid run to over $5,400 in January (and the attempted recovery in February) would have burned itself out at some point, the long correction was sparked by the anointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chairman and the outbreak of war between the U.S. and Iran.

Both of those factors are temporary and will end in the not too distant future — the former as the market realizes that the Fed will not and can not embark on a rate-hike campaign, and the latter as U.S. midterm elections approach.

As you can see from the chart above, the low range for this correction was set in late June, as gold temporarily dropped through $4,000 and formed a death cross as the 50-day moving average dropped through the 200 DMA.
 

We had to bounce along that bottom for a while, before breaking through the downtrend line, and the 50 DMA shortly thereafter, last week. Now gold has the 200 DMA at close to $4,500 clearly in its sights.
 

Last week’s rally began after disappointing jobs reports, first from ADP and then the official nonfarm payrolls report for July, came through as shocking misses. Expectations were already muted for the nonfarm payrolls number at just 80,000, but it came in at a loss of 23,000 jobs...plus another 103,000 jobs lost to revisions for the previous two months.

That let the Fed fund futures market to drop the odds of a September rate cut from over 70% to under 45%, and I think that’s still far too high.

Before these jobs numbers, I thought Warsh could do one rate hike to establish some credibility with the market, but in the face of these early signs of a cratering job market I don’t think there’s a chance he’s going to add his own monetary tightening to the effects of higher energy costs, rising yields and geopolitical uncertainty already weighing on the economy.

Thus, gold, silver and mining stocks are off to the races once again. Gold gained nearly $300 last week, or about 7.2%, and is building on those gains a bit today.

This rebound fits in perfectly with our predictions, based largely on seasonality effects, of a bottom sometime between mid-July and mid-August. As you know, I’ve preached that those taking advantage of this buying opportunity could get as much as a 20%-30% jump on those investors who wait until September to get back into the game.

Well, about 15% of those gains have already been realized.

But it’s not too late to get on board. These early gains have taken some of the risk off the table, confirming the new rally, and will pale in comparison to the tremendous moves ahead.

The key is what you do now. The opportunity ahead of us ranks as among the best we’ll see in our investing careers and — while I admit I’m talking my own book — I frankly cannot recommend more strongly that you do two things right now:

1)  If you’re not already a Gold Newsletter subscriber, CLICK HERE to join our happy family now. Our track record is unsurpassed, and a number of our top junior mining recommendations are about to release eagerly awaited drill results.

Today is not too late. But tomorrow may be.

2)  Make sure you attend this year’s New Orleans Conference. I urge you to CLICK HERE to get all the details and see our best-in-the-world faculty for New Orleans ’26. Attendance at this event will pay for itself many times over — our track record over five decades proves it, and I guarantee it.

The difference this year is that registrations are flowing in so hot and heavy that we’ll sell out our room block in our host hotel much earlier than usual...and we may have to turn people away.
 

So get the details and sign up while you can still save hundreds of dollars in registration fees and guarantee your place.

All the best,

Brien Lundin
Publisher, Gold Newsletter
CEO, the New Orleans Investment Conference

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