Blood in the water...

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Blood In The Water...

Treasury Secretary Bessent insists on challenging the bond vigilantes, and neither side is backing down.
 

The underlying trends are pointing toward volatility ahead…and potentially much more.

What an interesting macroeconomic picture is being painted at the moment.

I’m afraid it will be “interesting” not in a “well, that’s fascinating” way, but something closer to the old Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times.”
 

There’s a lot I could cover in this regard, but much of it can be summarized by the observation that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is busily talking Treasury bond yields down…while Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is just as busily talking Treasury bill yields up.

And it increasingly looks like both are going to be disappointed in the results.

For his part, Bessent has been challenging the market to a duel on bond yields, and the market is taking up the challenge. As I posted on X last week:

As that blood drips into the water, the sharks are getting more numerous and excited. Consider the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield:

There’s a bulls-eye on 5%, and the market usually gets what it wants.
 

Moving to the other end of the curve, Warsh might get his higher rates even without resorting to the rate hike that everyone now expects. Given President Trump’s promise last week of a cool $5,000 payment to every adult citizen (at an estimated $1.2 trillion cost), it’s likely that vigilantes demanding higher returns won’t be limited to bonds but bills as well.

Regardless, with diesel prices soaring to record highs and other inflationary flashpoints becoming evident in last week’s CPI report, even I have to acknowledge that Warsh will likely post a quarter-point rate hike next week to rebuild some credibility for the central bank.

But the math still doesn’t math for any kind of an extended rate-hike campaign.

And in fact, outside of the most recent spate of price weakness in gold, bond yields and the gold price have been rising hand-in-hand. I featured a chart of this in last week’s Golden Opportunities, showing how the two have been largely positively correlated since late June.

This correlation isn’t a good sign for either Bessent or Warsh, because it evidences the market’s doubt regarding the future value of the dollar.

In addition, as I’ve been writing and saying recently, I think gold and bonds are sniffing out some trouble ahead. A 5% 10-year Treasury yield looms directly ahead, and that could be a trigger point for a very significant equities sell-off. That bubble has been searching for a pin for some time, and this just might be it.
 

As I posted yesterday on X:

In the meantime, the metals have been victimized by the emotional swings of the Western traders, and with the odds of a Fed rate hike this week rising toward 100%, gold is trading down again today.
 

However, that’s to be expected as a rate hike looms. And, importantly, these instances have typically marked take-off points for gold.

As long-time readers will remember, I called the gold bottom in December 2015 as the Fed’s first rate hike was days away. From that point on, gold and silver soared and many of our junior stock picks multiplied four to five times in value over the next six months.

In this case, I predict we’ll soon have a resumption of the long-term gold bull market.

And that means we could see many more 10-baggers in our mining stock portfolio.

And in turn, that means you need to get ready now. So I’ll repeat this message:

The Best Of The Best,
In One Place,
At One Time…

We know that today’s debt load and deficit trajectory means that the dollar’s purchasing power has to be diminished significantly over the years just ahead. We also know that other fiat currencies are in the same boat.
 

We know that there are tremendous excesses in equity valuations right now, and that this will eventually get resolved in violent fashion.
 

We know that metals and miners are in a bull market that will take price levels far higher over the months to come.

And knowing all this…we know that the most profitable place to be is the New Orleans Investment Conference.

I hope you don’t mind me mentioning this again, but there are urgent reasons why I have to do it now.
 

I need to stress that we’re bringing together the biggest and best roster of independent thinkers you’ll find anywhere, including:

Grant Williams…Doug Casey…Danielle DiMartino Booth…Brent Johnson…Dominic Frisby…Peter Boockvar…Jim Iuorio…Peter Schiff…Adrian Day…Tavi Costa…George Gammon…Russell Gray…Robert Helms…Porter Stansberry...Adam Taggart…
 

...Mark Skousen…Frank Giustra…Bob Prechter…Dave Collum…Nick Hodge…Don Durrett…Brent Cook…Lobo Tiggre…Jeff Clark…Jeff Phillips…Alasdair Macleod…Albert Lu…Jennifer Shaigec…Chris Powell…Kerry Stevenson…Dana Samuelson…Craig Hemke…Daniela Cambone…Rich Checkan…Gerardo Del Real…Pamela Aden…Omar Ayales…JP Cortez…Steve Hochberg…

...And. of course, I’ll take the podium to give you my latest thoughts, predictions and picks.
 

As I’ve said a lot lately, I’ll grant that you might find three or four of our speakers at other conferences. But you won’t find 40!

Timing Is Everything

Here’s the other thing: Over five decades of documented experience shows that serious investors simply can’t afford to miss the New Orleans Conference when metals and miners are running like they are now.
 

Unlike other events, you won’t be pitched from our General Session stage. These experts will not only give you their unbiased views on where the macro and the markets are headed, and why, they’ll also give you sound, actionable ideas on what to do.

And a lot of them will give you their top stock picks in junior miners — insights that alone could be worth hundreds of times the cost of attending New Orleans ’26.

Once again, our business model is built on providing more value than any other event, and that’s the foundation on which our money-back guarantee is built.
 

And now here’s the reason why I have to deliver this message today:

If you want to benefit from this blockbuster event...coming at such a crucial time in the markets...you’ll need to act now.

Registrations for New Orleans ’26 are flowing in at a rate we haven’t seen in decades. Our exhibit hall is already sold out, and our room block in our convenient host hotel is also set to sell out soon.
 

So again, I urge you to click on the link below to learn more, and to lock in your spot in New Orleans this year. You’ll not only guarantee you’ll be able to attend, but you’ll save hundreds of dollars in registration fees.
 

But none of that is guaranteed if you don’t act now.

All the best,

Brien Lundin
Publisher, Gold Newsletter
CEO, the New Orleans Investment Conference

CLICK HERE
To Learn More
And Reserve Your Place At
New Orleans ’26

CONFERENCE COUNTDOWN: 44 DAYS TO NEW ORLEANS
 

What Happens If AI Taps The Brakes?
 

For the past few years, the AI race has been all gas, no brakes. This weekend, some of the people driving it suggested that might need to change.
 

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for companies to slow the pace at which they advance their most powerful AI models...and both OpenAI’s Sam Altman and xAI’s Elon Musk agreed. OpenAI also shelved plans for an IPO this year as safety concerns moved front and center.
 

Markets took notice. AI and semiconductor stocks sold off around the world this morning as mainstream investors started asking a question that would have sounded almost unthinkable a few months ago:
 

What happens if the AI buildout actually slows?
 

That question came up repeatedly at last year’s New Orleans Investment Conference.
 

Peter Boockvar spent a good portion of his presentation documenting just how enormous the spending had become. Oracle was spending the equivalent of 52% of revenue on capital expenditures, Microsoft nearly 30% and Meta 35%.
 

And Peter raised the obvious risk: “What if we built one too many buildings?”
 

His point was that the U.S. economy and stock market had become unusually dependent on the data-center buildout. If the big spenders suddenly pull back, the effects don’t necessarily stop with Nvidia or the hyperscalers.

Danielle DiMartino Booth took that concern a step further. She noted that data centers represented only a small portion of total construction, yet were doing an extraordinary amount of economic heavy lifting — and increasingly, that expansion was being financed with debt rather than cash flow.
 

Dave Collum put it rather bluntly: “I think the AI bubble could be blown up by a lack of capital.”
 

With companies talking about spending hundreds of billions of dollars, Dave simply asked: “Where’s that going to come from?”
 

That doesn’t mean AI goes away. Far from it.
 

Jim Bianco compared the current buildout to the internet infrastructure boom. The Nasdaq eventually crashed...but the infrastructure remained, and companies like Google, Facebook and Uber eventually built enormous businesses on top of it. His view was that AI could follow a similar path: a transformative technology surviving a very painful investment cycle.
 

That possibility suddenly looks a lot more relevant today.
 

No one knows whether the industry will actually slow down. In fact, more than $1.2 trillion in AI spending is still expected by 2027, and the competitive race between companies and countries gives everyone a powerful incentive to keep going.

But for the first time, Wall Street is seriously asking what happens if it doesn’t.

Our speakers were asking that question nearly a year ago.

And in 44 days, we’ll bring them back to New Orleans to debate what comes next.

[CLICK HERE TO JOIN US IN NEW ORLEANS]

CLICK HERE to watch interviews by Brien Lundin and Kai Hoffmann with many of today's most exciting junior mining companies on the

Gold Newsletter Youtube channel.