Hopes on hold...

You are receiving this message because you have specifically subscribed to Golden Opportunities, have purchased a product or have registered for a conference with us or with one of our partners. If you'd rather not receive emails from us, please click the link at the bottom of this page to unsubscribe from our database. Remember your personal information will never be rented or sold and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Contact Us | Privacy Policy | View in Browser | Forward to a Friend

Hopes On Hold

Markets tremble — and gold weakens — as investors finally start taking the Fed seriously and the U.S. economy refuses to collapse.

Still, with a global economy built upon a foundation of zeroed interest rates being pummeled by one of the harshest tightening cycles ever seen, the next crisis is inevitable.

If you liked gold a month ago, you have to love it when it’s $100 cheaper, right?

I know what you’re thinking — it’s not funny. And frankly, you’re right. After a month waiting for the inevitable market blow-up as yields soared, during which gold has shed over $100, gold bugs’ hopes for a fall price rebound have been shattered.

Right now, gold and silver are being victimized by the paper-metal speculators. They sense blood, and they’re piling on into the technical weakness that their selling has created.

This is a time when we simply have to play rope-a-dope and endure the beating until it ends.
 

Which begs the questions, what will turn the tide, and when?

The Inevitable Crisis

As I’ve been reporting, gold, stocks and other risk assets experienced periodic rallies over the summer as investors bet on not just the Fed’s pause, but the inevitable crisis that would be created by unsustainably high interest rates.
 

Now, finally, it seems that the Fed has broken the will of these speculators. Powell & Co. are being taken seriously...just as it seems their hawkish policy and rhetoric may be spawning the crisis that everyone was predicting.
 

With corporate bankruptcies soaring...and more on the way...you can sense it in the air — the feeling that something looms just ahead.
 

You don’t have to look hard to see it in the comments and mannerisms of the talking heads on CNBC, as they strain to explain why repeated stock sell-offs are nothing to worry about. Yet their own headlines and chyrons, like “stocks close down for fourth straight day” tell a different story.
 

There are lots of cross-currents in the financial and macro-economic world today, but I think we can peer through the fog and distill it all down to this:

After well over a decade of the easiest monetary policy in human history, followed immediately by one of the steepest tightening cycles ever seen, we fully expect a major event of some sort that will force the Fed to pivot.

Yet Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his minions seem blithely unconcerned about what may lie ahead, and hell-bent to maintain this ultra-hawkish monetary stance as long as possible.
 

The result of this tension is that investors keep trying to price in a Fed pivot, only to be forced to retreat as the Fed maintains its harsh policy and rhetoric.
 

Note that we get these periodic rebounds in stocks, bonds and gold even though investors have no idea where the next crisis will originate.
 

That said, there is no lack of potential candidates.
 

They include the recession that every indicator continues to point toward...a stock market crash (which looks increasingly likely)...the always-concerning derivative-market dominoes...the soaring cost of servicing the federal debt (which will make headlines next month as official numbers put it well past $1 trillion annually)...and the tsunami of debt resets that’s about to crash on companies around the world in the weeks ahead (James Grant puts the total increased costs at $8 trillion!).
 

So yes, there are plenty of options and, again, it’s likely that the eventual catalyst will be something out of left field that we haven’t thought about much at all. That’s just the way the world works.
 

And while we are forced to wonder what will cause the next crisis, we have certainty as to what the Fed will do about it:

They’ll unleash a flood of liquidity that will make the post-Covid rescue operation pale in comparison. Because, again, the addicted financial markets and economy will require a much greater dose of monetary adrenaline to get the same effect as before.

The Fed will strive for shock and awe, and you can bet that they’ll get it.

But we know all this. The real question isn’t so much what will happen, but when. And that’s always the tough part.
 

So far, any bet that the inevitable crisis is imminent hasn’t turned out well. The few short-lived rallies in stocks, bonds and gold that we’ve seen this year have all come up short as the Fed has renewed its vow to bury inflationary pressures for good.
 

I must admit that I’m very impressed with Jerome Powell’s fortitude. My friend Danielle DiMartino Booth, who is probably today’s top Fed analyst (as well as a speaker in New Orleans this year), has told me that she believes Powell idolizes Paul Volcker and wants his legacy to be mentioned in the same breath as his famed predecessor.
 

The problem is that Powell doesn’t have the same toolbox that Volcker had at his disposal. When Volcker was hiking rates to over 20%, the federal debt was merely 35% of U.S. GDP; today it’s about 125%.

We simply cannot afford to pay the costs of servicing this massive (and rapidly growing) debt load with anything approaching normalized interest rates.

In light of this simple math, and the markets’ addiction to ever-easier money, I never would have expected Powell to turn the Fed’s outspoken doves into such ardent hawks and to show such resolve in raising rates no matter what the consequences.

That said, the consequences will come...and they’ll have to deal with them when they do.

The Turning Point Is Near

With the Fed expressing its determination to keep rates higher for longer...and with yields soaring as the Treasury issues a flood of new paper to fund ballooning deficit spending...the economy and markets are headed for a showdown.
 

The turning point will be dramatic and likely not too much further in the future. You need to know what’s likely to happen, and how to protect yourself and profit.

One of the best ways to learn how to do so is by attending the upcoming New Orleans ’23 Investment Conference, featuring one of the greatest rosters of experts ever assembled.

Consider who you can hear from in just a few weeks:

Matt Taibbi...James Rickards...Danielle DiMartino Booth...George Gammon...Konstantin Kisin...Rick Rule...Dominic Frisby...Brent Johnson...Lyn Alden...Rich Checkan...Dave Collum...Peter Boockvar...James Stack...Peter Schiff...Jim Iuorio...Tavi Costa...

...Adrian Day...Adam Taggart...The Real Estate Guys...Gwen Preston...Brent Cook...Mark Skousen...Nick Hodge...Robert Prechter ...Chris Powell...Albert Lu...Gary Alexander...Dana Samuelson...Jeff Hirsch...Steve Hochberg...Mary Anne & Pamela Aden...Bill Murphy...Gerardo Del Real...Omar Ayales...Keith Weiner...and more.

And, of course, yours truly. I always save my best forecasts and recommendations for this legendary event...and I can guarantee that you won’t want to miss my special presentation for this year.

Again, it all happens in just a few weeks — from November 1-4. So CLICK HERE (or call us toll free at 800-648-8411) to secure your place now...guarantee accommodations in our host hotel...and save up to $400.

All the best,

Brien Lundin
Publisher, Gold Newsletter
CEO, the New Orleans Investment Conference

CLICK HERE
To Secure Your Spot At
New Orleans ’23
And Save Up To $400!